Loading...
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Page: Discounted Cash Flow

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.

Ticker: KREF | Industry: REIT - Mortgage | Sector: Real Estate
$8.15 -0.07 (-0.85%)
As of: 2026-01-23

Master Data Export


Fair Value Summary

Current Price$8.15
5Y Range0.00 – 0.00
5Y Selected-8.37
(-) Safety Margin50.00%
5Y Buy Price$-1.22
Upside (to Buy Price)-114.96%
10Y Range0.00 – 0.00
10Y Selected-6.41
(-) Safety Margin50.00%
10Y Buy Price$-0.93
Upside (to Buy Price)-111.46%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.3394
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9048
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.2925
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0109
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9841
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6183
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2394
FCF R2 (10Y)0.8943
Safety Score0.3203

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth3.92%3.93%3.94%3.95%3.95%3.96%3.97%3.98%3.99%4.00%
Revenue157.66M163.85M170.30M177.02M184.02M191.31M198.91M206.84M215.09M223.69M
---0.00M0.00M0.00M0.00M0.00M0.00M0.00M0.00M0.00M0.00M
EBITDA123.07M127.90M132.94M138.18M143.64M149.34M155.27M161.45M167.90M174.61M
D&A-7.51M-7.80M-8.11M-8.43M-8.76M-9.11M-9.47M-9.85M-10.24M-10.65M
EBIT115.56M120.10M124.83M129.75M134.88M140.23M145.80M151.60M157.66M163.96M
Pro forma Taxes-0.98M-1.02M-1.06M-1.10M-1.15M-1.19M-1.24M-1.29M-1.34M-1.39M
NOPAT114.58M119.08M123.77M128.65M133.74M139.04M144.56M150.32M156.31M162.57M
Capital Expenditures-1.54M-1.60M-1.66M-1.72M-1.79M-1.86M-1.94M-2.01M-2.09M-2.18M
NWC Investment0.46M0.48M0.50M0.52M0.55M0.57M0.59M0.62M0.64M0.67M
(+) D&A7.51M7.80M8.11M8.43M8.76M9.11M9.47M9.85M10.24M10.65M
Free Cash Flow121.01M125.77M130.72M135.88M141.25M146.85M152.69M158.77M165.11M171.71M

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Time (t)0.100.431.432.433.434.435.436.437.438.43
Valuation Date1/27/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 8.64% | Terminal Growth: 2.45%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.820.750.690.640.590.540.50
PV UFCF120.01M121.37M116.11M111.10M106.31M101.73M97.37M93.20M89.21M85.40M
Raw: 2,339.35M
1,689.19M
Raw: 2,843.82M
1,356.96M

Base Case Valuation

Metric5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
Enterprise Value2,264.10M2,398.77M
(-) Net Debt2,915.13M2,915.13M
Equity Value-651.03M-516.35M
(/) Shares Out67,807,623.5067,807,623.50
Fair Value$-9.60$-7.61
(-) Safety Margin50.00%50.00%
Buy Price$-4.80$-3.81
Upside (to Buy Price)-158.90%-146.72%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 9.64% | Terminal Growth: 1.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.800.730.670.610.550.500.46
PV UFCF119.90M120.89M114.60M108.65M103.02M97.69M92.64M87.86M83.34M79.05M
Raw: 1,873.62M
1,305.05M
Raw: 2,277.66M
1,001.43M

Conservative Valuation

Metric5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
Enterprise Value1,872.12M2,009.08M
(-) Net Debt2,915.13M2,915.13M
Equity Value-1,043.01M-906.05M
(/) Shares Out67,807,623.5067,807,623.50
Fair Value$-15.38$-13.36
(-) Safety Margin50.00%50.00%
Buy Price$-7.69$-6.68
Upside (to Buy Price)-194.37%-181.98%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 7.64% | Terminal Growth: 2.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.620.580.54
PV UFCF120.12M121.85M117.66M113.63M109.73M105.99M102.38M98.90M95.56M92.32M
Raw: 3,103.24M
2,323.72M
Raw: 3,772.44M
1,955.03M

Aggressive Valuation

Metric5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
Enterprise Value2,906.71M3,033.17M
(-) Net Debt2,915.13M2,915.13M
Equity Value-8.42M118.05M
(/) Shares Out67,807,623.5067,807,623.50
Fair Value$-0.12$1.74
(-) Safety Margin50.00%50.00%
Buy Price$-0.06$0.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-100.76%-89.32%

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Rolling analysis is hidden for performance. Click "Run Analysis" to calculate.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation is hidden for performance. Click "Run Simulation" to calculate.