Page: Discounted Cash Flow
Apple Inc.
$248.04
+0.72 (0.29%)
As of: 2026-01-23
Master Data Export
Fair Value Summary
| Current Price | $248.04 |
| 5Y Range | 0.00 – 0.00 |
| 5Y Selected | 260.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.47% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $81.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.13% |
| 10Y Range | 0.00 – 0.00 |
| 10Y Selected | 285.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.47% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $89.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.92% |
Company Predictability & Safety
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7111 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9124 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3728 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8618 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6965 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8658 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0347 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8291 |
| Safety Score | 0.6653 |
DA 10-Year Projection
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.99% | 8.44% | 7.88% | 7.33% | 6.77% | 6.22% | 5.66% | 5.11% | 4.55% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 453,571.67M | 491,830.83M | 530,590.53M | 569,463.26M | 608,026.90M | 645,831.23M | 682,405.67M | 717,268.21M | 749,935.37M | 779,932.79M |
| --- | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M |
| EBITDA | 157,760.08M | 171,067.28M | 184,548.57M | 198,069.18M | 211,482.28M | 224,631.28M | 237,352.51M | 249,478.30M | 260,840.51M | 271,274.13M |
| D&A | -15,926.90M | -17,270.34M | -18,631.37M | -19,996.36M | -21,350.50M | -22,677.98M | -23,962.27M | -25,186.44M | -26,333.53M | -27,386.87M |
| EBIT | 141,833.18M | 153,796.93M | 165,917.21M | 178,072.82M | 190,131.78M | 201,953.31M | 213,390.24M | 224,291.86M | 234,506.98M | 243,887.25M |
| Pro forma Taxes | -25,330.17M | -27,466.79M | -29,631.36M | -31,802.25M | -33,955.87M | -36,067.09M | -38,109.63M | -40,056.56M | -41,880.90M | -43,556.13M |
| NOPAT | 116,503.02M | 126,330.14M | 136,285.84M | 146,270.57M | 156,175.91M | 165,886.21M | 175,280.61M | 184,235.29M | 192,626.08M | 200,331.12M |
| Capital Expenditures | -15,949.04M | -17,294.35M | -18,657.27M | -20,024.16M | -21,380.18M | -22,709.50M | -23,995.58M | -25,221.46M | -26,370.14M | -27,424.94M |
| NWC Investment | 4,932.09M | 5,043.95M | 5,109.94M | 5,124.84M | 5,084.10M | 4,983.99M | 4,821.85M | 4,596.16M | 4,306.72M | 3,954.75M |
| (+) D&A | 15,926.90M | 17,270.34M | 18,631.37M | 19,996.36M | 21,350.50M | 22,677.98M | 23,962.27M | 25,186.44M | 26,333.53M | 27,386.87M |
| Free Cash Flow | 121,412.97M | 131,350.09M | 141,369.89M | 151,367.62M | 161,230.32M | 170,838.68M | 180,069.14M | 188,796.44M | 196,896.20M | 204,247.81M |
Discounting Periods
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 9/28/26 | 9/28/27 | 9/28/28 | 9/28/29 | 9/28/30 | 9/28/31 | 9/28/32 | 9/28/33 | 9/28/34 |
| Period End | 9/27/26 | 9/27/27 | 9/27/28 | 9/27/29 | 9/27/30 | 9/27/31 | 9/27/32 | 9/27/33 | 9/27/34 | 9/27/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.17 | 1.17 | 2.17 | 3.17 | 4.17 | 5.17 | 6.17 | 7.17 | 8.17 | 9.17 |
| Valuation Date | 1/27/26 | |||||||||
Base Case Projected Flows
WACC: 6.54% | Terminal Growth: 2.46%| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 120,112.87M | 121,969.64M | 123,218.29M | 123,836.35M | 123,810.87M | 123,138.87M | 121,827.44M | 119,893.75M | 117,364.56M | 114,275.71M | Raw: 4,047,349.29M 3,011,141.64M |
Raw: 5,127,213.22M 2,779,241.93M |
Base Case Valuation
| Metric | 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | 3,624,089.66M | 3,988,690.28M |
| (-) Net Debt | 66,169.00M | 66,169.00M |
| Equity Value | 3,557,920.66M | 3,922,521.28M |
| (/) Shares Out | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 |
| Fair Value | $236.56 | $260.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.47% | 33.47% |
| Buy Price | $157.39 | $173.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -36.55% | -30.05% |
Conservative Projected Flows
WACC: 7.54% | Terminal Growth: 1.96%| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 119,922.26M | 120,643.67M | 120,745.39M | 120,222.59M | 119,080.13M | 117,332.48M | 115,003.43M | 112,125.60M | 108,739.61M | 104,893.19M | Raw: 2,945,191.03M 2,097,614.98M |
Raw: 3,730,990.65M 1,847,709.95M |
Conservative Valuation
| Metric | 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | 2,698,229.02M | 3,006,418.31M |
| (-) Net Debt | 66,169.00M | 66,169.00M |
| Equity Value | 2,632,060.02M | 2,940,249.31M |
| (/) Shares Out | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 |
| Fair Value | $175.00 | $195.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.47% | 33.47% |
| Buy Price | $116.43 | $130.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.06% | -47.56% |
Aggressive Projected Flows
WACC: 5.54% | Terminal Growth: 2.96%| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.61 | ||
| PV UFCF | 120,305.59M | 123,322.89M | 125,765.88M | 127,594.36M | 128,776.85M | 129,291.47M | 129,126.55M | 128,281.10M | 126,764.83M | 124,598.11M | Raw: 6,430,368.01M 4,999,461.36M |
Raw: 8,146,039.68M 4,837,231.27M |
Aggressive Valuation
| Metric | 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | 5,625,226.95M | 6,101,058.91M |
| (-) Net Debt | 66,169.00M | 66,169.00M |
| Equity Value | 5,559,057.95M | 6,034,889.91M |
| (/) Shares Out | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 |
| Fair Value | $369.62 | $401.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.47% | 33.47% |
| Buy Price | $245.91 | $266.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -0.86% | 7.63% |
Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)
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Monte Carlo Simulation
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