Page: Discounted Cash Flow
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.
$8.15
-0.07 (-0.85%)
As of: 2026-01-23
Master Data Export
Fair Value Summary
| Current Price | $8.15 |
| 5Y Range | 0.00 – 0.00 |
| 5Y Selected | -8.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.00% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $-1.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -114.96% |
| 10Y Range | 0.00 – 0.00 |
| 10Y Selected | -6.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.00% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $-0.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -111.46% |
Company Predictability & Safety
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3394 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9048 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2925 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0109 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9841 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6183 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2394 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8943 |
| Safety Score | 0.3203 |
DA 10-Year Projection
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.92% | 3.93% | 3.94% | 3.95% | 3.95% | 3.96% | 3.97% | 3.98% | 3.99% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 157.66M | 163.85M | 170.30M | 177.02M | 184.02M | 191.31M | 198.91M | 206.84M | 215.09M | 223.69M |
| --- | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M | 0.00M |
| EBITDA | 123.07M | 127.90M | 132.94M | 138.18M | 143.64M | 149.34M | 155.27M | 161.45M | 167.90M | 174.61M |
| D&A | -7.51M | -7.80M | -8.11M | -8.43M | -8.76M | -9.11M | -9.47M | -9.85M | -10.24M | -10.65M |
| EBIT | 115.56M | 120.10M | 124.83M | 129.75M | 134.88M | 140.23M | 145.80M | 151.60M | 157.66M | 163.96M |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.98M | -1.02M | -1.06M | -1.10M | -1.15M | -1.19M | -1.24M | -1.29M | -1.34M | -1.39M |
| NOPAT | 114.58M | 119.08M | 123.77M | 128.65M | 133.74M | 139.04M | 144.56M | 150.32M | 156.31M | 162.57M |
| Capital Expenditures | -1.54M | -1.60M | -1.66M | -1.72M | -1.79M | -1.86M | -1.94M | -2.01M | -2.09M | -2.18M |
| NWC Investment | 0.46M | 0.48M | 0.50M | 0.52M | 0.55M | 0.57M | 0.59M | 0.62M | 0.64M | 0.67M |
| (+) D&A | 7.51M | 7.80M | 8.11M | 8.43M | 8.76M | 9.11M | 9.47M | 9.85M | 10.24M | 10.65M |
| Free Cash Flow | 121.01M | 125.77M | 130.72M | 135.88M | 141.25M | 146.85M | 152.69M | 158.77M | 165.11M | 171.71M |
Discounting Periods
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.43 | 1.43 | 2.43 | 3.43 | 4.43 | 5.43 | 6.43 | 7.43 | 8.43 |
| Valuation Date | 1/27/26 | |||||||||
Base Case Projected Flows
WACC: 8.64% | Terminal Growth: 2.45%| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 120.01M | 121.37M | 116.11M | 111.10M | 106.31M | 101.73M | 97.37M | 93.20M | 89.21M | 85.40M | Raw: 2,339.35M 1,689.19M |
Raw: 2,843.82M 1,356.96M |
Base Case Valuation
| Metric | 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | 2,264.10M | 2,398.77M |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,915.13M | 2,915.13M |
| Equity Value | -651.03M | -516.35M |
| (/) Shares Out | 67,807,623.50 | 67,807,623.50 |
| Fair Value | $-9.60 | $-7.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| Buy Price | $-4.80 | $-3.81 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -158.90% | -146.72% |
Conservative Projected Flows
WACC: 9.64% | Terminal Growth: 1.95%| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 119.90M | 120.89M | 114.60M | 108.65M | 103.02M | 97.69M | 92.64M | 87.86M | 83.34M | 79.05M | Raw: 1,873.62M 1,305.05M |
Raw: 2,277.66M 1,001.43M |
Conservative Valuation
| Metric | 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | 1,872.12M | 2,009.08M |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,915.13M | 2,915.13M |
| Equity Value | -1,043.01M | -906.05M |
| (/) Shares Out | 67,807,623.50 | 67,807,623.50 |
| Fair Value | $-15.38 | $-13.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| Buy Price | $-7.69 | $-6.68 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -194.37% | -181.98% |
Aggressive Projected Flows
WACC: 7.64% | Terminal Growth: 2.95%| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 120.12M | 121.85M | 117.66M | 113.63M | 109.73M | 105.99M | 102.38M | 98.90M | 95.56M | 92.32M | Raw: 3,103.24M 2,323.72M |
Raw: 3,772.44M 1,955.03M |
Aggressive Valuation
| Metric | 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | 2,906.71M | 3,033.17M |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,915.13M | 2,915.13M |
| Equity Value | -8.42M | 118.05M |
| (/) Shares Out | 67,807,623.50 | 67,807,623.50 |
| Fair Value | $-0.12 | $1.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| Buy Price | $-0.06 | $0.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -100.76% | -89.32% |
Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)
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Monte Carlo Simulation
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