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Definitive Analysis

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Page: Dividend Discount Model

Mach Natural Resources LP

Ticker: MNR | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Sector: Energy
$11.43 -0.14 (-1.21%)
As of: 2026-01-23

Master Data Export


Dividend Discount Models Snapshot

ModelRangeSelected
Stable Growth DDM$102.90 - $188.66$135.14
Multi-Stage DDM$22.79 - $24.89$23.82
Blended Fair Value$79.48
Stock Price$11.71

Dividend History (Last 10 Years)

Metric2024202320222021
DPS3.1711.0682.8931.537
YoY %196.96%-63.09%88.24%0.00%
Yield27.081%9.119%24.706%13.124%

CAGRValue
5 Year0.00%
10 Year0.00%

Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

MetricRangeSelected
LT Growth5.50% to 7.50%6.50%
WACC10.31%10.31%
Fair Value$102.90 - $188.66$135.14

Calculation Details (Millions)

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(*) Adjusted Net Income185.18185.18185.18
(=) Cash Required37.0423.1513.89
Cash Retained185.18185.18185.18
(-) Cash Required-37.04-23.15-13.89
(=) Excess Retained148.14162.03171.29
(/) Shares Outstanding97,701,00097,701,00097,701,000
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.661.75
LTM Dividend per Share3.1713.1713.171
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.661.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.6874.8304.924

Multi-Stage Projections (BASE Case - Millions)

MetricTTMYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Net Income185.18197.22210.03223.69238.23253.71
Payout Ratio167.3%25.0%41.0%57.0%73.0%90.0%
Projected Dividends309.8349.3086.11127.50173.91228.34

Multi-Stage Valuation (Millions)

Present ValuesLOWBASEHIGH
Year 1 PV46.5046.9447.38
Year 2 PV72.9474.3375.73
Year 3 PV96.9999.77102.61
Year 4 PV118.80123.37128.07
Year 5 PV140.09146.85153.88
TV PV1,751.431,836.031,923.86
Equity Value2,226.762,327.312,431.54
Fair Value$22.79$23.82$24.89
Stock Price$11.71$11.71$11.71

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