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Definitive Analysis

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Page: Dividend Discount Model

Fortescue Metals Group Limited

Ticker: FVJ.F | Industry: Industrial Materials | Sector: Basic Materials
$12.96 +0.05 (0.31%)
As of: 2026-01-15

Master Data Export


Dividend Discount Models Snapshot

ModelRangeSelected
Stable Growth DDM$9.17 - $11.35$10.27
Multi-Stage DDM$7.89 - $8.72$8.30
Blended Fair Value$9.28
Stock Price$12.36

Dividend History (Last 10 Years)

Metric2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.9271.3431.2732.1731.8400.6230.7160.2800.2420.037
YoY %-30.98%5.56%-41.43%18.07%195.43%-13.05%156.01%15.73%561.23%-66.73%
Yield7.499%10.865%10.293%17.575%14.885%5.039%5.795%2.263%1.956%0.296%

CAGRValue
5 Year8.28%
10 Year23.77%

Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

MetricRangeSelected
LT Growth-8.72% to -6.72%-7.72%
WACC9.24%9.24%
Fair Value$9.17 - $11.35$10.27

Calculation Details (Millions)

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(*) Adjusted Net Income3,373.003,373.003,373.00
(=) Cash Required674.60421.63252.98
Cash Retained3,373.003,373.003,373.00
(-) Cash Required-674.60-421.63-252.98
(=) Excess Retained2,698.402,951.383,120.03
(/) Shares Outstanding3,074,807,0973,074,807,0973,074,807,097
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.880.961.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.9270.9270.927
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.880.961.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.8051.8871.942

Multi-Stage Projections (BASE Case - Millions)

MetricTTMYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Net Income3,373.003,112.762,872.602,650.972,446.442,257.69
Payout Ratio84.5%25.0%41.0%57.0%73.0%90.0%
Projected Dividends2,851.00778.191,177.771,511.051,785.902,031.92

Multi-Stage Valuation (Millions)

Present ValuesLOWBASEHIGH
Year 1 PV736.48744.54752.61
Year 2 PV1,009.271,031.501,053.98
Year 3 PV1,172.481,211.431,251.24
Year 4 PV1,254.751,310.651,368.39
Year 5 PV1,292.661,365.031,440.61
TV PV18,801.2419,853.8720,953.12
Equity Value24,266.8825,517.0326,819.95
Fair Value$7.89$8.30$8.72
Stock Price$12.36$12.36$12.36

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