Definitive Analysis
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Fair Value Summary

5-Year Range 130.62 – 372.62
5-Year Selected 251.62
Upside (5Y) -9.74%
10-Year Range 141.18 – 373.51
10-Year Selected 257.34
Upside (10Y) -7.69%
Current Price 278.78

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
Revenue437,376459,140481,426504,207527,451551,122575,184599,595624,310649,283
Cost Of Revenue253,123265,718278,616291,800305,252318,951332,877347,004361,307375,760
Gross Profit184,253193,422202,810212,407222,199232,171242,308252,591263,003273,523
R&D29,40230,86532,36333,89435,45737,04838,66640,30741,96843,647
SG&A28,74330,17331,63833,13534,66336,21837,80039,40441,02842,669
Operating Expenses58,14561,03864,00167,03070,12073,26676,46579,71082,99686,316
Operating Income (EBIT)126,108132,383138,809145,378152,079158,905165,842172,881180,007187,207
Depreciation & Amortization15,35816,12216,90517,70518,52119,35220,19721,05421,92222,799
EBITDA141,467148,506155,714163,082170,600178,257186,040193,935201,929210,006
(-) Tax Adjustment26,48327,80129,15030,52931,93733,37034,82736,30537,80139,313
(-) Change In Working Capital101106112117122128133139145151
(-) Capital Expenditure-15,380-16,145-16,928-17,730-18,547-19,379-20,225-21,084-21,953-22,831
Unlevered Free Cash Flow130,262136,744143,381150,166157,088164,138171,305178,575185,936193,373
(-) Net Interest Income After Taxes6,0556,3576,6656,9807,3027,6307,9638,3018,6438,989
(+) Net Issuance Of Debt-4,173-4,381-4,593-4,811-5,032-5,258-5,488-5,721-5,957-6,195
Levered Free Cash Flow120,034126,006132,123138,375144,754151,250157,854164,553171,336178,189

Predictability (R²)

Revenue 91.24%
EBITDA 87.34%
Free Cash Flow 82.91%

WACC

Risk-Free Rate 4.20%
Equity Risk Premium 4.60%
Adjusted Beta 1.161
Cost of Equity 9.54%
Cost of Debt 4.00%
Tax Rate 15.61%
Debt Weight 86.80%
Equity Weight 13.20%
Final WACC 4.19%

Beta

Beta (Best Window: 1y) 1.24
Adjusted Beta 1.161
R² 0.564
Stock Volatility 0.0204
Market Volatility 0.0124
Observations 252

Discount Periods

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035Terminal
Beginning Date2025-09-272026-09-272027-09-272028-09-272029-09-272030-09-272031-09-272032-09-272033-09-272034-09-27
End Date2026-09-272027-09-272028-09-272029-09-272030-09-272031-09-272032-09-272033-09-272034-09-272035-09-27
Mid-Year Convention2026-03-272027-03-272028-03-272029-03-272030-03-272031-03-272032-03-272033-03-272034-03-272035-03-27
Discount Period0.1921.1922.1923.1924.1925.1926.1927.1928.1929.1929.692
Valuation Date 2025-12-06

DCF Valuation — Base Case

Metric UFCF (5y) LFCF (5y) EBITDA (5y) UFCF (10y) LFCF (10y) EBITDA (10y)
PV of Projection Period 605,461 557,919 657,540 1,118,865 1,031,011 1,215,106
Terminal Value 150,212 138,417 163,132 185,961 171,359 201,957
PV of Terminal Value 2,407,728 2,218,672 2,614,831 2,028,649 1,869,358 2,203,146
(-) Net Debt 43,960 43,960 43,960 43,960 43,960 43,960
Equity Value 2,969,229 2,732,631 3,228,411 3,103,555 2,856,410 3,374,291
(/) Shares Outstanding (M) 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7
Fair Value 197.89 182.12 215.16 206.84 190.37 224.88
Current Price 278.78 278.78 278.78 278.78 278.78 278.78
Upside / Downside -29.02% -34.67% -22.82% -25.81% -31.71% -19.33%
Safety Margin 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%
Buy Price 98.94 91.06 107.58 103.42 95.18 112.44

DCF Valuation — Low Case

Metric UFCF (5y) LFCF (5y) EBITDA (5y) UFCF (10y) LFCF (10y) EBITDA (10y)
PV of Projection Period 593,731 547,111 644,801 1,074,567 990,191 1,166,996
Terminal Value 150,212 138,417 163,132 185,961 171,359 201,957
PV of Terminal Value 1,580,918 1,456,783 1,716,902 1,272,023 1,172,143 1,381,438
(-) Net Debt 43,960 43,960 43,960 43,960 43,960 43,960
Equity Value 2,130,689 1,959,934 2,317,743 2,302,630 2,118,374 2,504,474
(/) Shares Outstanding (M) 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7
Fair Value 142.00 130.62 154.47 153.46 141.18 166.91
Current Price 278.78 278.78 278.78 278.78 278.78 278.78
Upside / Downside -49.06% -53.15% -44.59% -44.95% -49.36% -40.13%
Safety Margin 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%
Buy Price 71.00 65.31 77.23 76.73 70.59 83.46

DCF Valuation — High Case

Metric UFCF (5y) LFCF (5y) EBITDA (5y) UFCF (10y) LFCF (10y) EBITDA (10y)
PV of Projection Period 617,641 569,143 670,767 1,166,249 1,074,674 1,266,565
Terminal Value 150,212 138,417 163,132 185,961 171,359 201,957
PV of Terminal Value 4,571,003 4,212,084 4,964,182 4,034,697 3,717,889 4,381,745
(-) Net Debt 43,960 43,960 43,960 43,960 43,960 43,960
Equity Value 5,144,684 4,737,267 5,590,990 5,156,986 4,748,604 5,604,350
(/) Shares Outstanding (M) 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7 15,004.7
Fair Value 342.87 315.72 372.62 343.69 316.47 373.51
Current Price 278.78 278.78 278.78 278.78 278.78 278.78
Upside / Downside 22.99% 13.25% 33.66% 23.28% 13.52% 33.98%
Safety Margin 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%
Buy Price 171.44 157.86 186.31 171.85 158.24 186.75