DCF Valuation Summary — AAPL β β β β β
Base
$99.01
Fair Value Per Share
| WACC | 9.83% |
| Terminal Growth | 1.50% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.562T |
| Equity Value | $1.486T |
| Buy β Dynamic (13.72%) | $85.43 |
| Buy β 25% MoS | $74.26 |
| Terminal Value (PV) | $732.01B |
| Terminal Value (Raw) | $1.821T |
| Terminal Period | 9.7208 |
| Last FCF | $149.45B |
Conservative
$84.77
Fair Value Per Share
| WACC | 10.83% |
| Terminal Growth | 0.75% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.348T |
| Equity Value | $1.272T |
| Buy β Dynamic (13.72%) | $73.14 |
| Buy β 25% MoS | $63.58 |
| Terminal Value (PV) | $549.81B |
| Terminal Value (Raw) | $1.494T |
| Terminal Period | 9.7208 |
| Last FCF | $149.45B |
Aggressive
$120.47
Fair Value Per Share
| WACC | 8.83% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.25% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.884T |
| Equity Value | $1.808T |
| Buy β Dynamic (13.72%) | $103.94 |
| Buy β 25% MoS | $90.35 |
| Terminal Value (PV) | $1.020T |
| Terminal Value (Raw) | $2.323T |
| Terminal Period | 9.7208 |
| Last FCF | $149.45B |
10-Year DCF Projections
| METRIC | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $441,051.57M | $465,724.96M | $489,977.31M | $513,597.47M | $536,369.80M | $558,077.27M | $578,504.75M | $597,442.42M | $614,689.25M | $630,056.48M |
| % Growth | 5.98% | 5.59% | 5.21% | 4.82% | 4.43% | 4.05% | 3.66% | 3.27% | 2.89% | 2.50% |
| Revenue Per Share | $0.00M | $0.00M | $0.00M | $0.00M | $0.00M | $0.00M | $0.00M | $0.00M | $0.00M | $0.00M |
| (-) Cost of Revenue | $255,249.98M | $269,529.22M | $283,564.80M | $297,234.51M | $310,413.55M | $322,976.32M | $334,798.33M | $345,758.13M | $355,739.40M | $364,632.88M |
| Gross Profit | $185,801.59M | $196,195.73M | $206,412.51M | $216,362.96M | $225,956.25M | $235,100.95M | $243,706.42M | $251,684.29M | $258,949.85M | $265,423.60M |
| researchAndDevelopmentExpenses | $29,648.93M | $31,307.56M | $32,937.88M | $34,525.70M | $36,056.53M | $37,515.78M | $38,888.98M | $40,162.04M | $41,321.42M | $42,354.46M |
| sellingGeneralAndAdministrativeExpenses | $28,984.69M | $30,606.15M | $32,199.95M | $33,752.20M | $35,248.74M | $36,675.29M | $38,017.73M | $39,262.26M | $40,395.67M | $41,405.57M |
| (-) Total Operating Expenses | $58,633.62M | $61,913.71M | $65,137.83M | $68,277.91M | $71,305.27M | $74,191.07M | $76,906.71M | $79,424.30M | $81,717.10M | $83,760.03M |
| Operating Income | $127,167.97M | $134,282.02M | $141,274.68M | $148,085.06M | $154,650.98M | $160,909.88M | $166,799.71M | $172,259.99M | $177,232.75M | $181,663.57M |
| (+) Depreciation & Amortization | $15,487.26M | $16,353.65M | $17,205.26M | $18,034.67M | $18,834.30M | $19,596.55M | $20,313.85M | $20,978.83M | $21,584.44M | $22,124.05M |
| EBITDA | $146,932.45M | $155,152.17M | $163,231.63M | $171,100.48M | $178,686.88M | $185,918.53M | $192,723.77M | $199,032.69M | $204,778.32M | $209,897.78M |
| (-) Tax Adjustment | $26,705.27M | $28,199.23M | $29,667.68M | $31,097.86M | $32,476.71M | $33,791.07M | $35,027.94M | $36,174.60M | $37,218.88M | $38,149.35M |
| (-) Change In Working Capital | $102.27M | $107.99M | $113.61M | $119.09M | $124.37M | $129.40M | $134.14M | $138.53M | $142.53M | $146.09M |
| (-) Capital Expenditure | $15,508.79M | $16,376.39M | $17,229.18M | $18,059.74M | $18,860.49M | $19,623.79M | $20,342.09M | $21,008.00M | $21,614.45M | $22,154.81M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | $104,616.12M | $110,468.58M | $116,221.16M | $121,823.79M | $127,225.32M | $132,374.27M | $137,219.61M | $141,711.57M | $145,802.46M | $149,447.53M |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | $14,948.50M | $14,948.50M | $14,948.50M | $14,948.50M | $14,948.50M | $14,948.50M | $14,948.50M | $14,948.50M | $14,948.50M | $14,948.50M |
All projected line items are calculated as a fixed percentage of revenue based on 10-year historical averages to normalize cyclicality and one-time events.
Predictability & Safety Score
Predictability
73.7%
Safety Score
86.3%
Dynamic Safety Margin
13.72%
Applied to all buy prices
β
β
β
β
β
| METRIC | VALUE |
|---|---|
| Revenue RΒ² (5yr) | 0.7120 |
| Revenue RΒ² (10yr) β Base Score | 0.9128 |
| β Decline penalty (2 declines Γ 0.04) | β0.0800 |
| β Drawdown penalty (2.80% Γ 0.15) | β0.0042 |
| β Earnings collapse penalty | β |
| β Hypergrowth penalty (3yr CAGR 1.81%) | β |
| β Growth volatility penalty | β0.0518 |
| β Acceleration penalty | β |
| β Sector cyclicality (technology) | β0.0400 |
| = Predictability Score | 0.7368 |
| Safety Score | 0.8628 |
| Safety Margin % | 13.72% |
Key Inputs
| INPUT | VALUE |
|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted) | 15,004,697,000 |
| Net Debt | $76.44B |
| WACC (Base) | 9.83% |
| Dynamic Safety Margin | 13.72% |
| Fixed Safety Margin | 25.00% |
Projected Free Cash Flow 10-Year Forecast
| YEAR | FCF |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $104.62B |
| 2027 | $110.47B |
| 2028 | $116.22B |
| 2029 | $121.82B |
| 2030 | $127.23B |
| 2031 | $132.37B |
| 2032 | $137.22B |
| 2033 | $141.71B |
| 2034 | $145.80B |
| 2035 | $149.45B |
Present Value of FCF — All Cases
| YEAR | Base FCF | Base Period | Base DF | Base PV | Conservative FCF | Conservative Period | Conservative DF | Conservative PV | Aggressive FCF | Aggressive Period | Aggressive DF | Aggressive PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $104.62B | 0.3579 | 0.967000 | $101.16B | $104.62B | 0.3579 | 0.963869 | $100.84B | $104.62B | 0.3579 | 0.970171 | $101.50B |
| 2027 | $110.47B | 1.2153 | 0.892307 | $98.57B | $110.47B | 1.2153 | 0.882532 | $97.49B | $110.47B | 1.2153 | 0.902281 | $99.67B |
| 2028 | $116.22B | 2.2166 | 0.812348 | $94.41B | $116.22B | 2.2166 | 0.796190 | $92.53B | $116.22B | 2.2166 | 0.828986 | $96.35B |
| 2029 | $121.82B | 3.2180 | 0.739548 | $90.09B | $121.82B | 3.2180 | 0.718289 | $87.50B | $121.82B | 3.2180 | 0.761639 | $92.79B |
| 2030 | $127.23B | 4.2180 | 0.673360 | $85.67B | $127.23B | 4.2180 | 0.648102 | $82.46B | $127.23B | 4.2180 | 0.699846 | $89.04B |
| 2031 | $132.37B | 5.2180 | 0.613096 | $81.16B | $132.37B | 5.2180 | 0.584774 | $77.41B | $132.37B | 5.2180 | 0.643067 | $85.13B |
| 2032 | $137.22B | 6.2194 | 0.558152 | $76.59B | $137.22B | 6.2194 | 0.527558 | $72.39B | $137.22B | 6.2194 | 0.590824 | $81.07B |
| 2033 | $141.71B | 7.2208 | 0.508132 | $72.01B | $141.71B | 7.2208 | 0.475940 | $67.45B | $141.71B | 7.2208 | 0.542825 | $76.92B |
| 2034 | $145.80B | 8.2208 | 0.462655 | $67.46B | $145.80B | 8.2208 | 0.429435 | $62.61B | $145.80B | 8.2208 | 0.498785 | $72.72B |
| 2035 | $149.45B | 9.2208 | 0.421248 | $62.95B | $149.45B | 9.2208 | 0.387473 | $57.91B | $149.45B | 9.2208 | 0.458318 | $68.49B |
| Terminal | $1.821T | 9.7208 | 0.401956 | $732.01B | $1.494T | 9.7208 | 0.368056 | $549.81B | $2.323T | 9.7208 | 0.439332 | $1.020T |
Discount Periods — Base Case Mid-year convention | WACC 9.83%
| YEAR | MID-YEAR PERIOD | DISCOUNT FACTOR | FCF | PV OF FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.3579 | 0.967000 | $104.62B | $101.16B |
| 2027 | 1.2153 | 0.892307 | $110.47B | $98.57B |
| 2028 | 2.2166 | 0.812348 | $116.22B | $94.41B |
| 2029 | 3.2180 | 0.739548 | $121.82B | $90.09B |
| 2030 | 4.2180 | 0.673360 | $127.23B | $85.67B |
| 2031 | 5.2180 | 0.613096 | $132.37B | $81.16B |
| 2032 | 6.2194 | 0.558152 | $137.22B | $76.59B |
| 2033 | 7.2208 | 0.508132 | $141.71B | $72.01B |
| 2034 | 8.2208 | 0.462655 | $145.80B | $67.46B |
| 2035 | 9.2208 | 0.421248 | $149.45B | $62.95B |
| Terminal | 9.7208 | 0.401956 | $1.821T | $732.01B |
Margin of Safety — Buy Price Targets Dynamic margin: 13.72%
| MARGIN OF SAFETY | Base | Conservative | Aggressive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Value (0%) | $99.01 | $84.77 | $120.47 |
| Dynamic (13.72%) | $85.43 | $73.14 | $103.94 |
| 5% MoS | $94.06 | $80.53 | $114.45 |
| 10% MoS | $89.11 | $76.29 | $108.42 |
| 15% MoS | $84.16 | $72.05 | $102.40 |
| 20% MoS | $79.21 | $67.82 | $96.37 |
| 25% MoS | $74.26 | $63.58 | $90.35 |
| 30% MoS | $69.31 | $59.34 | $84.33 |
| 35% MoS | $64.36 | $55.10 | $78.30 |
| 40% MoS | $59.41 | $50.86 | $72.28 |
| 50% MoS | $49.51 | $42.39 | $60.23 |
WACC Scenarios Applied
| SCENARIO | WACC | TERMINAL GROWTH | SPREAD (WACC β g) | ENTERPRISE VALUE | FAIR VALUE / SHARE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 9.83% | 1.50% | 8.33% | $1.562T | $99.01 |
| Conservative | 10.83% | 0.75% | 10.08% | $1.348T | $84.77 |
| Aggressive | 8.83% | 2.25% | 6.58% | $1.884T | $120.47 |
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Market-Implied FCF Growth
13.97%
Constant annual rate priced into current stock
WACC Used
8.00%
Floored at 8.00%
Terminal Growth
1.50%
Applied after year 10
Target Enterprise Value
$3.985T
Market cap + net debt
| INPUT | VALUE |
|---|---|
| Current Stock Price | $260.48 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted) | 15,004,697,000 |
| Net Debt | $76.44B |
| Equity Value (Market Cap) | $3.908T |
| Target Enterprise Value | $3.985T |
| WACC | 8.00% |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 1.50% |
| Implied Constant FCF Growth | 13.97% |
| METRIC | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | $474.30B | $540.55B | $616.06B | $702.12B | $800.20B | $911.98B | $1.039T | $1.185T | $1.350T | $1.539T |
| Constant Implied Growth | 13.97% | 13.97% | 13.97% | 13.97% | 13.97% | 13.97% | 13.97% | 13.97% | 13.97% | 13.97% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | $112.56B | $128.29B | $146.21B | $166.63B | $189.91B | $216.44B | $246.68B | $281.13B | $320.41B | $365.16B |
| Discount Factor | 0.925926 | 0.857339 | 0.793832 | 0.735030 | 0.680583 | 0.630170 | 0.583490 | 0.540269 | 0.500249 | 0.463193 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | $104.23B | $109.99B | $116.07B | $122.48B | $129.25B | $136.39B | $143.93B | $151.89B | $160.28B | $169.14B |
Implied growth is the single constant annual FCF growth rate solved via 60-iteration binary search such that the sum of discounted cash flows + terminal value equals the current enterprise value. Terminal value uses 1.50% perpetuity growth.
Historical Rolling DCF Backtest
| VALUATION YEAR | FISCAL DATE | STOCK PRICE | IMPLIED GROWTH (5Y FWD) | BACKTESTED FAIR VALUE | UNDERVALUATION % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-09-27 | $255.46 | 5.41% | $121.92 | -52.27% |
| 2024 | 2024-09-28 | $227.79 | 11.17% | $141.62 | -37.83% |
| 2023 | 2023-09-30 | $171.21 | 16.47% | $159.00 | -7.13% |
| 2022 | 2022-09-24 | $150.43 | 17.74% | $163.71 | +8.83% |
| 2021 | 2021-09-25 | $146.92 | 16.72% | $134.65 | -8.35% |
| 2020 | 2020-09-26 | $112.28 | 12.70% | $82.02 | -26.95% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-28 | $54.71 | 10.09% | $68.64 | +25.46% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-29 | $56.44 | 13.16% | $74.75 | +32.44% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $38.53 | 13.79% | $63.03 | +63.58% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-24 | $28.18 | 15.38% | $63.49 | +125.29% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-26 | $28.68 | 22.16% | $87.78 | +206.06% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-27 | $25.19 | 29.78% | $69.73 | +176.83% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-28 | $17.24 | 42.49% | $60.38 | +250.24% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-29 | $23.83 | 47.98% | $55.15 | +131.44% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-24 | $14.44 | 42.55% | $37.31 | +158.35% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-25 | $10.44 | 32.75% | $20.00 | +91.56% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-26 | $6.51 | 28.75% | $11.91 | +82.91% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-27 | $4.58 | 33.23% | $8.75 | +90.97% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-29 | $5.48 | 35.83% | $4.87 | -11.15% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $2.75 | 31.98% | $2.77 | +0.60% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-24 | $1.90 | 21.12% | $1.60 | -15.61% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-25 | $0.67 | 0.01% | $0.40 | -40.35% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-27 | $0.37 | 0.01% | $0.37 | -1.08% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-28 | $0.26 | 0.01% | $0.38 | +43.36% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-29 | $0.28 | 0.01% | $0.38 | +38.14% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $0.46 | 0.01% | $0.50 | +9.63% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-25 | $0.58 | 0.01% | $0.27 | -53.00% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-25 | $0.35 | 0.01% | $0.21 | -38.42% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-26 | $0.19 | 0.01% | $0.02 | -90.55% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-27 | $0.20 | 9.74% | $0.15 | -23.45% |
| 1995 | 1995-09-29 | $0.33 | 14.63% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 1994 | 1994-09-30 | $0.30 | 14.58% | $0.55 | +83.91% |
| 1993 | 1993-09-30 | $0.21 | 13.20% | $0.32 | +55.24% |
| 1992 | 1992-09-30 | $0.40 | 15.84% | $1.05 | +161.00% |
| 1991 | 1991-09-30 | $0.44 | 25.18% | $1.31 | +197.30% |
| 1990 | 1990-09-30 | $0.27 | 33.57% | $1.59 | +485.58% |
Fair Value is calculated using actual Revenue/Share growth realized in the 5 years following the valuation date. This "perfect foresight" backtest reveals how the market priced the entity relative to its eventual fundamental trajectory.
Monte Carlo DCF Simulation 1,000 iterations | Normal distribution on WACC & terminal growth
Mean Fair Value
$190.48
1,000 simulation runs
Median Fair Value
$184.40
50th percentile
10th Percentile (Bear)
$146.38
Pessimistic scenario
90th Percentile (Bull)
$240.78
Optimistic scenario
| PARAMETER | VALUE |
|---|---|
| Iterations | 1,000 |
| Base WACC | 8.00% |
| WACC Std Dev (Β±1Ο) | 1.00% |
| Base Terminal Growth | 1.50% |
| Terminal Growth Std Dev (Β±1Ο) | 0.50% |
| Minimum (Worst) | $111.28 |
| 10th Percentile | $146.38 |
| Median (50th) | $184.40 |
| Mean | $190.48 |
| 90th Percentile | $240.78 |
| Maximum (Best) | $459.78 |
Simulated Fair Value Distribution 20-bin histogram of 1,000 simulated outcomes
16
$119.99
79
$137.41
160
$154.84
200
$172.26
180
$189.69
141
$207.11
100
$224.54
57
$241.96
28
$259.39
14
$276.81
10
$294.24
5
$311.66
3
$329.09
2
$346.51
2
$363.94
1
$381.36
0
$398.79
0
$416.21
0
$433.64
1
$451.06
Each bar represents a $17.42 wide bucket of simulated fair values. WACC sampled from N(8.00%, 1.00%) and terminal growth from N(1.50%, 0.50%), both clamped to sane ranges. Red bars = below median; green bars = above median.