Definitive Analysis
| Ticker | TSLA | |
| Company | TSLA | |
| Range | Selected | |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth | $32.35 - $55.77 | $42.32 |
| Discounted Dividend Model - Multi Stage | $70.55 - $109.60 | $86.09 |
| Blended Fair Value | $64.20 | |
| Stock Price | $455.00 | |
| Upside | -85.89% | |
| Safety Margin | 30.00% | |
| Buy Price | $44.94 | |
| Buy / Don't Buy | Hold / Sell | |
| Range | Selected | |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term Growth Rate | 3.00% to 3.00% | 3.00% |
| Discount Rate | 8.68% to 6.81% | 7.75% |
| Fair Value | $32.35 - $55.77 | $42.32 |
| Stock Price | $455.00 | |
| Upside | -85.89% | |
| Safety Margin | 30.00% | |
| Buy Price | $44.94 | |
| Buy / Don't Buy | Hold / Sell |
| Net Income To Common | 7,130 | ||
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid | 0 | ||
| (=) Cash Retained | 7,130 | ||
| LOW | BASE | HIGH | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.00% | 12.50% | 7.50% |
| (*) Adjusted Net Income | 7,130 | 7,130 | 7,130 |
| (=) Cash Required | 1,426.00 | 891.25 | 534.75 |
| Cash Retained | 7,130.00 | 7,130.00 | 7,130.00 |
| (-) Cash Required | -1,426.00 | -891.25 | -534.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained | 5,704.00 | 6,238.75 | 6,595.25 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,197 | 3,197 | 3,197 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.78 | 1.95 | 2.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.78 | 1.95 | 2.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.78 | 1.95 | 2.06 |
| LOW | BASE | HIGH | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.68% | 7.75% | 6.81% |
| Growth Rate | 32.95% | 32.95% | 32.95% |
| Fair Value | $32.35 | $42.32 | $55.77 |
| Stock Price | $455.00 | $455.00 | $455.00 |
| Buy / Don't Buy | Hold / Sell | Hold / Sell | Hold / Sell |
| Discount Rate (Horizontal) vs Growth Rate (Vertical) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth \ Discount | 4.50% | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% | 8.50% |
| 2.00% | $79.62 | $100.01 | $134.00 | $201.97 | $405.90 |
| 2.50% | $56.87 | $66.67 | $80.40 | $100.99 | $135.30 |
| 3.00% | $44.23 | $50.01 | $57.43 | $67.32 | $81.18 |
| 3.50% | $36.19 | $40.00 | $44.67 | $50.49 | $57.99 |
| 4.00% | $30.62 | $33.34 | $36.55 | $40.39 | $45.10 |
| Range | Selected | |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term Growth Rate | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| Fair Price | $70.55 - $109.60 | $86.09 |
| Projections (in millions except Per Share) | ||
| Metric | TTM | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | 7,130 | 8,556 | 10,267 | 12,321 | 14,785 | 17,742 | 18,274 |
| % Growth | - | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 3.00% |
| Payout Ratio | - | 25.00% | 41.00% | 57.00% | 73.00% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends | 0 | 2,139 | 4,210 | 7,023 | 10,793 | 15,968 | 16,903 |
| Present Values | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sum of PV (Years 1-5) | 9.16 | 9.45 | 9.77 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 61.40 | 76.64 | 99.83 |
| Equity Value (Per Share) | 70.55 | 86.09 | 109.60 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,197 | 3,197 | 3,197 |
| Stock Price | $455.00 | $455.00 | $455.00 |
| Buy / Don't Buy | Hold/Sell | Hold/Sell | Hold/Sell |