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China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited

ID: 2319.HK SECTOR: Consumer Defensive INDUSTRY: Packaged Foods
16.49
-0.04 (-0.24%)
Ref: 2026-04-20

Dividend Discount Models Snapshot

ModelRangeSelected
Stable Growth DDM $7.98 - $11.77 $9.54
Multi-Stage DDM $0.34 - $0.37 $0.36
Blended Fair Value $4.95
Stock Price$16.96

Dividend History (Last 10 Years)

Metric 2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS 0.4900.4010.3800.2700.1790.1810.1230.0890.1420.150
YoY % 22.02%5.74%40.63%50.93%-1.02%46.30%39.51%-37.76%-5.27%50.08%
Yield 2.89%2.37%2.24%1.59%1.05%1.07%0.73%0.52%0.84%0.89%

CAGRValue
5 Year22.07%
10 Year17.21%

Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

MetricRangeSelected
LT Growth 2.44% to 4.44% 3.44%
WACC9.00%9.00%
Fair Value $7.98 - $11.77 $9.54

Calculation Details (Millions)

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio 20.0% 12.5% 7.5%
(*) Adjusted Net Income 15.29 15.29 15.29
(=) Cash Required 3.06 1.91 1.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share 0.02 0.02 0.02
LTM Dividend per Share 0.490 0.490 0.490
(=) Adjusted Dividend 0.511 0.513 0.514

Multi-Stage Projections (BASE Case - Millions)

MetricTTMYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Net Income 15.29 15.8216.3616.9217.5118.11
Projected Dividends 281.61 3.956.719.6512.7816.30

Multi-Stage Valuation (Millions)

Present ValuesLOWBASEHIGH
Year 1 PV 3.75 3.79 3.82
Year 2 PV 5.78 5.90 6.01
Year 3 PV 7.55 7.78 8.01
Year 4 PV 9.09 9.45 9.82
Year 5 PV 10.53 11.06 11.60
TV PV 159.11 167.03 175.26
Equity Value 195.82 205.00 214.53
Fair Value $0.34 $0.36 $0.37

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JGH JGH 19.71% $2.48 70.08%
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RGT RGT 19.58% $2.56 37.89%
AIKI AIKI 19.55% $0.70 10.85%
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DTW DTW 19.03% $4.08 87.19%
EMD EMD 18.84% $2.03 78.17%
SR-PA SR-PA 18.76% $4.54 98.60%
SRV SRV 18.74% $7.53 66.75%
CIK CIK 18.41% $0.52 82.82%
DHY DHY 18.39% $0.37 88.67%
MNR MNR 18.30% $2.06 89.28%
PFL PFL 18.22% $1.54 84.57%
EAD EAD 18.08% $1.23 52.27%
SPE SPE 18.03% $2.66 44.19%
AIF AIF 17.93% $2.66 60.44%
GAB GAB 17.77% $1.08 81.70%
HPF HPF 17.73% $2.86 78.50%
MPV MPV 17.65% $2.93 95.78%
GBAB GBAB 17.43% $2.59 74.37%
TEI TEI 17.42% $1.14 64.65%
ISD ISD 17.40% $2.52 96.64%
HIX HIX 17.39% $0.73 96.11%
NXG NXG 17.31% $8.79 83.58%
HPI HPI 17.11% $2.79 76.40%
RCS RCS 17.08% $1.00 75.51%
DUKB DUKB 16.95% $4.19 65.28%
FGB FGB 16.75% $0.70 50.91%
RQI RQI 16.75% $1.92 87.08%
FPF FPF 16.57% $3.09 70.83%
EVV EVV 16.43% $1.63 64.70%
AIZN AIZN 16.41% $3.22 19.47%
NML NML 16.37% $1.40 40.22%
PGP PGP 16.31% $1.50 60.66%
CHW CHW 16.07% $1.20 66.54%
BGY BGY 15.99% $0.94 99.21%
GABBX GABBX 15.98% $2.85 40.22%
BDJ BDJ 15.90% $1.49 72.30%
DSL DSL 15.85% $1.78 54.50%
PDT PDT 15.76% $2.01 62.66%
TSQ TSQ 15.55% $0.79 70.58%
EOD EOD 15.39% $0.90 52.51%
LGI LGI 15.37% $2.68 82.52%
BSTZ BSTZ 15.35% $3.54 65.39%
FPI FPI 15.34% $1.48 93.00%