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China Railway Group Limited

ID: 601390.SS SECTOR: Industrials INDUSTRY: Engineering & Construction
5.25
-0.01 (-0.19%)
Ref: 2026-04-13
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Dividend Discount Models Snapshot

ModelRangeSelected
Stable Growth DDM $31.63 - $52.87 $40.35
Multi-Stage DDM $14.96 - $16.38 $15.66
Blended Fair Value $28.00
Stock Price$5.91

Dividend History (Last 10 Years)

Metric 2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS 0.8890.9400.8470.1800.1690.1260.1370.4370.4590.527
YoY % -5.47%10.97%370.68%6.51%34.53%-8.54%-68.55%-4.83%-12.94%-11.17%
Yield 15.04%15.91%14.34%3.05%2.86%2.13%2.32%7.39%7.76%8.92%

CAGRValue
5 Year47.89%
10 Year4.12%

Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

MetricRangeSelected
LT Growth 3.15% to 5.15% 4.15%
WACC9.00%9.00%
Fair Value $31.63 - $52.87 $40.35

Calculation Details (Millions)

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio 20.0% 12.5% 7.5%
(*) Adjusted Net Income 3,819.37 3,819.37 3,819.37
(=) Cash Required 763.87 477.42 286.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share 0.90 0.99 1.05
LTM Dividend per Share 0.889 0.889 0.889
(=) Adjusted Dividend 1.793 1.878 1.935

Multi-Stage Projections (BASE Case - Millions)

MetricTTMYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Net Income 3,819.37 3,977.964,143.144,315.174,494.354,680.97
Projected Dividends 3,002.03 994.491,698.692,459.653,280.874,212.87

Multi-Stage Valuation (Millions)

Present ValuesLOWBASEHIGH
Year 1 PV 943.40 952.55 961.69
Year 2 PV 1,464.18 1,492.70 1,521.50
Year 3 PV 1,926.36 1,982.93 2,040.59
Year 4 PV 2,334.73 2,426.59 2,521.14
Year 5 PV 2,724.01 2,858.63 2,998.53
TV PV 41,143.97 43,177.35 45,290.33
Equity Value 50,536.65 52,890.75 55,333.79
Fair Value $14.96 $15.66 $16.38

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EMD EMD 18.84% $2.03 78.17%
SR-PA SR-PA 18.76% $4.54 98.60%
SRV SRV 18.74% $7.53 66.75%
CIK CIK 18.41% $0.52 82.82%
DHY DHY 18.39% $0.37 88.67%
MNR MNR 18.30% $2.06 89.28%
PFL PFL 18.22% $1.54 84.57%
EAD EAD 18.08% $1.23 52.27%
SPE SPE 18.03% $2.66 44.19%
AIF AIF 17.93% $2.66 60.44%
GAB GAB 17.77% $1.08 81.70%
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MPV MPV 17.65% $2.93 95.78%
GBAB GBAB 17.43% $2.59 74.37%
TEI TEI 17.42% $1.14 64.65%
ISD ISD 17.40% $2.52 96.64%
HIX HIX 17.39% $0.73 96.11%
NXG NXG 17.31% $8.79 83.58%
HPI HPI 17.11% $2.79 76.40%
RCS RCS 17.08% $1.00 75.51%
DUKB DUKB 16.95% $4.19 65.28%
FGB FGB 16.75% $0.70 50.91%
RQI RQI 16.75% $1.92 87.08%
FPF FPF 16.57% $3.09 70.83%
EVV EVV 16.43% $1.63 64.70%
AIZN AIZN 16.41% $3.22 19.47%
NML NML 16.37% $1.40 40.22%
PGP PGP 16.31% $1.50 60.66%
CHW CHW 16.07% $1.20 66.54%
BGY BGY 15.99% $0.94 99.21%
GABBX GABBX 15.98% $2.85 40.22%
BDJ BDJ 15.90% $1.49 72.30%
DSL DSL 15.85% $1.78 54.50%
PDT PDT 15.76% $2.01 62.66%
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